PDF to full report
Key takeaways:
- The median purchase rate rose 1/8 ppts. to 7 1/2% in week 40, setting a new series record.
- Mortgage News Daily reported a daily avg. 30-year rate of 7.62% on October 10th.
- Purchase volume was down 44% from the same week in 2019, and down 31% YTD compared to 2019.
- Y-o-y HPA was 4.5% in August 2023, up from 3.8% in July 2023 but down from 10.2% in August 2022. It is projected to remain around 5% for September, October, and the first three weeks of November 2023.
- Despite the subdued rate of purchase activity and historically high rates, y-o-y HPA has begun to accelerate. This is because buyers are well-qualified and highly motivated by a historically tight supply. Cooling, yet still strong job numbers, low levels of foreclosures in most areas, work from home, and continued home price arbitrage opportunities provide further support for robust HPA.