Pfizer’s PFE Biopharma operating segment includes three sub-segments, Primary Care, Specialty Care and Oncology.
In the Primary Care segment, Pfizer expects significantly lower sales from its COVID products in the third quarter due to a decline in demand.
Among COVID products, Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech BNTX, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, and product revenues from its oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid.
Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from BioNTech for Comirnaty is $1.79 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $614.9 million.
Alliance revenues from Bristol-Myers BMY for Eliquis and sales of Prevnar family of vaccines are likely to have provided top-line support. The Prevnar family includes revenues from Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 (pediatric and adult) and Prevnar 20 (adult).
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $1.52 billion, while our model estimate is $1.50 billion.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the sales of Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.69 billion while our model estimates Prevnar family vaccine sales to be $1.71 billion.
In the second quarter, however, sales of Prevnar and alliance revenues from Eliquis were hurt by some near-term individual product challenges. It remains to be seen if these challenges abated in the third quarter, resulting in better sales of these drugs.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 41.2% so far this year against an increase of 0.5% for the industry.
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In the Specialty Care unit, rare disease drug, Vyndaqel/Vyndamax, is expected to have been a key contributor to the top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $808.9 million while our model estimates the same to be $815 million.
Sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt by biosimilar competition.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xeljanz and Enbrel is pegged at $423.0 million and $205.0 million, respectively, while our estimate is $454.3 million and $189.2 million, respectively.
Newly acquired products, including Nurtec ODT/Vydura for migraine and Oxbryta for sickle cell disease, are expected to have contributed to the top line in the quarter. Nurtec ODT/Vydura was added to Pfizer’s portfolio with the acquisition of Biohaven in 2022. Oxbryta was added with the October 2022 acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics.
In the Oncology unit, sales of the key medicine, Ibrance are likely to have been hurt due to competitive pressure, which is hurting demand trends globally. The Zacks Consensus Estimate as well as our estimate for Ibrance is $1.26 billion.
Overall, Pfizer expects better non-COVID operational revenue growth in the third and fourth quarters to be driven by its key products, new launches as well as newly acquired products like Nurtec and Oxbryta.
Some key new product approvals/launches are Cibinqo for atopic dermatitis, Abrysvo RSV vaccine, Zavzpret nasal spray for migraine, Litfulo (ritlecitinib) for severe alopecia areata, Elrexfio (elranatamab) for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma and Ngenla for pediatric growth hormone deficiency in the same month.
Investors will be keen to know the initial sales numbers of these new products in the third quarter and how they have contributed to the top-line.
Zacks Rank and Stock to Consider
Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Pfizer Inc. price-eps-surprise | Pfizer Inc. Quote
A better-ranked large drug/biotech company worth considering is Gilead Sciences GILD, which has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
In the past 60 days, the consensus estimate for Gilead Sciences’ 2023 earnings has risen from $6.63 per share to $6.64 per share, while the same for 2024 has increased from $7.34 per share to $7.39 per share. Year to date, shares of Gilead Sciences have declined 10.8%.
GILD’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in the other two, delivering an average earnings surprise of 2.77%.
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